Cincinnati Reds: 2020 Playoff Push

The Reds finished the 2019 season with very surprising pitching numbers. In Derek Johnson’s first season as pitching coach he turned in a great performance. The Reds finished with #1 CH, #3 SL, #10 CB, and #18 FB according to Fangraphs. This is the rank of their overall pitch value for their staff. In 2018 they had negative grades for all but their SL. This is a big turnaround and something Johnson has done before. He inherited a Brewers team with a highly negative FB. He then improved it from -56.2 to -4.9 in his first season. By 2018 the Brewers had a 37.5 FB grade. He has already improved the Reds from -60.5 to -20.6. The Reds are hoping that Johnson can push his development into even more improvement in 2020. 

Some key factors are out of Johnson’s hands in improving a certain pitch value. A lot is in the hands of the GM who provides him with the right players. After the 2018 season, the Reds were able to drop a lot of their players that crippled their pitch values. A major dump came in the FB and CH department. Johnson was also able to improve a lot of players as seven took good strides on certain pitches. Garrett, DeSclafani, Mahle, and Castillo saw the most improvement and put together promising 2019 seasons. Of course there were players that regressed, but that offers hope that 2020 will be even better. The Reds were able to cut away a lot of 2018 fat and also added Sonny Gray and Matt Bowman who contributed positively in 2019. 

There were five teams in 2019 that posted three Top 10 pitches. The only team not to make the playoffs was the Reds. The Astros, Dodgers, Rays and Athletics were the other four teams. A major push in the 2020 season can come from a Trevor Bauer revival. He can single handily improve their FB, SL, and CH grades. Free agency did offer the Reds some interesting signings, but most improvement will need to come from their 2019 returners.  

Bauer had a negative grade with his FB (-3.1), SL (-1), and CH (-3.1). This coming off a strong campaign in 2018 were he posted a FB (8.7), SL (11.2), and CH (4). In 2019 Bauer threw his CT more, his CB less and lost 3 mph on his SL. My first thought that comes to mind is that 2018 was an outlier season for Bauer and he is returning to career averages. Before 2018 his FB, SL, and CH were all within a -2 and .5 range. This isn’t a horrible pitch value but it’s no where near his 2018 pitch values. This would give the Reds a #4 starter and a guy that can hold down the fort. Bauer has an intense work ethic and I wouldn’t bet that he doesn’t return to a resemblance of his 2018 form. Either way I see Bauer offering a bounce back year and giving the Reds an improvement in their team pitch values. 

A few players are looking to build up their FB’s to go along with their + off speed stuff. Robert Stephenson has the top graded SL coming out of the pen. He is just lacking a resemblance of a FB even though he sits 95 mph. His FB gets hit too much and he doesn’t get many swing and misses. Stephenson needs to not live so low in the zone and challenge hitters more up in the zone. He lives in the bottom half of the zone and gives up a very high contact % there. If Stephenson adjusts his approach he may gain some pitch value and put even more hitters away. Another guy that needs a FB boost is Lucas Sims. Sims has a good approach with the pitch as he throws up in the zone with good rise. He is going to be susceptible to extra base hits as he gets a lot of fly balls. For Sims most damage was done while he was starting. As a full time reliever we may see his FB grade climb as he limits the opportunities for XBH. We will also see an uptick in velocity. Lastly, Pedro Stop needs a resurgence with his FB as he lost velocity last year. He has a good SL/CH so if he can gain some velocity back he will be another weapon in the bullpen and help the team pitch values. 

Four players that need to continue to take steps forward are DeSclafani, Lorenzen, Garrett and Castillo. DeSclafani improved his FB/CH greatly and kept his very good SL. He saw better success with his CB but it was still negatively graded. For DeSclafani it’s just about continuing to develop and provide healthy innings moving into his prime. Lorenzen had a breakout season putting together 73 games out of the bullpen. His CH took a big jump in 2019 and now he needs to focus on his FB. I think for him he just needs to expand the zone a little more. Garrett saw the most improvement from the Reds staff and showed another big time SL out of the pen for the Reds. He is in a perfect spot to continue progress and establish himself as one of the best relievers in the game. Castillo put together a strong season and the best CH in the game. For Castillo I think its putting a full season together. In 2019 he fell off in the 2ndhalf and in 2018 he caught fire after the break. That may be a maturity and dedication thing that he can fix as he grows in the game. 

Another player like Bauer that needs a bounce back year is Rasiel Iglesias. His stuff was still good but his FB/CH took a step back. Iglesias saw a big decrease in his GB% giving a much higher chance for XBH. Iglesias is a guy that saw more success when he attacked middle and low in the zone. In 2019 he was attacking up in the zone more than ever. This led to more FB’s and increased XBH’s. In 2017 he had almost 200 more pitches and only six XHB’s. In 2019 he had 13 XBH’s. A change of approach could get Iglesias back on track. 

Sonny Gray put together the best season of his career and just needs to replicate it. Even if he reverts back to his big league avg season he will be a solid #1 starter for the Reds. His worst two seasons are behind him and he looks to lead this Reds staff and give Johnson an anchor. Starting pitching is a key factor in a deep postseason run and Gray will be expected to throw 200 +innings. He has only done that twice in his career so we will need to see how he holds up. 

Taylor Mahle enters his 4th season and it’s make or break. He has #5 starter competition in Wade Miley. Mahle is a superior option as far as potential and cost. He has also shown big league success in small sample sizes. Now its time to put that together over the course of the season. Point blank, he needs to make changes to his arsenal. He needs to scrap his CT. He needs to add that usage to his SF. Mahle offers a good FB but needs to start developing his off speeds to go with his SF. 

There are some impact arms to fill out the bullpen that already has six light out options. Cody Reed is reinventing himself as a power arm out of the pen. He offers a mid 90’s FB and an improving CH/SL. He gives another LHP option to go with Garrett. In his career as a reliever he has a sub 2 ERA and with their rotation depth there is no pressure for him to start. Matt Bowman offers a speciality in inducing GB double plays. He does offer a lot of value to a bullpen and gives them much needed postseason experience. He may not have the velocity of his counter parts but 2019 was a good bounce back season to build upon. There is still a lot of good bullpen options as we are starting to run out of room on the roster. Assuming Wade Miley makes the roster that would do it for the 2020 Reds pitching staff. However, lets look at some other options.

Nate Jones has had a lot of big league success since 2012. He has also had injury issues with 4+ procedures and a lot of missed time. When healthy Jones offers a SI/SL combo that produces at a high level. The biggest thing to see would be his velocity to spike back up. Last year he was around 95-96 mph after sitting 97-98 mph for his career. He can still be effective at a lower velocity and maybe 2020 is the year he gets back to full strength after all of the injuries. The layoff may be a good thing for him to prevent wear and tear. Tyler Thornburg is one of my favorite underdog signings. People forget how good he was in 2016. Thornburg needs to regain his lost velocity and get his CH back to where it was. That’s easier said then done, but if he can that another big time arm for the Reds.. Thornburg offers premium rise to his FB and started to pitch with that in 2019. Command issues and a right hip impingement prevented him from taking off in 2019. If healthy and able to put people away when ahead in the count (.300 BAA in 2019) Thornburg will make the squad. Obviously everyone will not perform to their capabilities but your starting to see 10+ options for their bullpen. 

We have looked at the Reds roster and what Derek Johnson has to work with. The goal of the season is to continue their improvement on the pitch value front and break the playoff field. They have a rotation that is deep for a long (or cut in half) regular season. They have a bullpen with a lot of arms and big time stuff. There is no reason to believe they will take steps backwards with their pitch values as a staff. This puts a lot of pressure on the Reds offense to produce and continue their 2nd half success. They finished 4th in HR and 6th in OPS in the NL. There are positive signs that the Reds will make a strong playoff push. They made some good offensive upgrades and have a strong nucleus of arms.