Pitcher 1st Round Mock Draft

So far my attention in the 2020 MLB Draft has been locked on pitchers. I thought it would be interesting to see an all pitcher mock draft. In 2019 the Royals added to their farm system by drafting five collegiate arms. College players usually offer more value when looking at the draft and collegiate bats normally offer the most value. So when looking at the overall board it may not be prudent to take a pitcher. There is some impact bats available in the Top 10 so a lot of these teams will not be selecting an arm. However, for the sake of this mock draft, teams will only be selecting pitchers.

There is a lot of research and data to show how certain teams develop and use pitchers. Ballparks are also a factor into a lot of the big league data. You also need to look at a teams window to win and rebuild situation. A lot of these players will be used in trade deadline moves to bolster a playoff push. This year is also intriguing given all the uncertainty with collegiate sports and the amount of rounds. Makes for a lot of drama and interesting evaluations. 

Each pick was determined by best fit and need. There is 30+ picks so some players may be going a lot earlier than they normally wood. I believe these are the best fits for what each organization looks to do at the big league level and with their draft approach. 

1)     Detroit Tigers – The Tigers are back at #1 after drafting Casey Mize in 2018. He has proven his worth making AA in his first full season. His arrival is set for 2020/2021. The Tigers are still rebuilding and don’t need to rush their pick. I also think with the track record of HS arms you cant afford to take one here. The only choice that makes sense at this point is LHP Asa Lacy from Texas A&M. The Tigers like a FF/SL combo, however, Lacy has one of the best CB and a very good FF. He also has an above avg CH. The 6-4 frame has room to grow and he looks to be a great 1A-1B punch with Mize for years to come. 

Pick: Asa Lacy, Junior, LHP, Texas A&M

2)     Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are looking to build like the Astros of years past and have similar development goals. I can tell you the Orioles wont look for a HS arm and they will avoid some of the pundits higher ranked arms. They want an arm that will attack with a FF/SL combo only behind the Rockies and Marlins. He also needs to have a good CH. This calls for a seasoned college arm. I’m gonna go on a limb here and pick Tanner Burns from Auburn. This pick just makes sense to me. Burns can throw 4 pitches that have a chance to be above avg. He has a great three year track record in the SEC and a lot of good metrics to build on. I think he can also match their growth plan and climb with Rutschman. 

Pick: Tanner Burns, Junior, RHP, Auburn

3)     Miami Marlins – As mentioned, the Marlins like to attack FF/SL with their arms. They are sent to call up four young arms in 2020/2021. There are question still as three of them ended last year at AA and still have a lot to prove. With that said I’d look for a college arm to try and arrive as they are establishing themselves in the MLB. My choice would be Max Meyer out of Minnesota. He offer the premium FF/SL combination sitting 96+ with a sharp swing and miss SL. He gives the rotation a much needed boost in velocity to go with Sandy Alcantara and the four young prospects. 

Pick: Max Meyer, Junior, RHP, Minnesota

4) Kansas City Royals – The Royals have a large group of 22/23 year old college arms that will be at A+/AA this year. They are all coming up together and the Royals are in desperate need of impact arms. I think the obvious pick here is Emerson Hancock out of Georgia. I am not as high on Hancock as a lot of sources are. He does have a lot of potential and it will take a good development system to get the most out of him. He can offer a mid 90’s Fastball, but I’m not sure if it’s a FF or FT. He doesn’t get a lot of swing and misses for how electric he is. This is something that can be fixed with a plan of attack and best use of a pitch shape. He does provide an above avg SL that the Royals like to throw a lot. Hancock, with his current pitch shape, gets a lot of GB’s, which the Royals are Top 10 in. I’m not sold on this fit, but the Royals could get their #1 starter and add to a deep collegiate farm system.

Pick: Emerson Hancock, Junior, RHP, Georgia

5)     Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays mix up their pitches at the big league level and don’t rely on their Fastball throwing it at the fourth lowest clip. I’m not high on this player being a Top 10 pick, however, I think he fits their system and gives a much needed LHP to the mix. Reid Detmers from Louisville is the pick and according to D1 he had the 2nd best zone control in 2019/2020. The Blue Jays tied for 2nd last in zone % and could use Detmers to pound the zone and get ahead on hitters. This would give them a quick moving arm that has three off-speeds that can continue to get better. 

Pick: Reid Detmers, Junior, LHP, Louisville

6)     Seattle Mariners – The Mariners threw the 3rd lowest amount of Fastballs last season and that was due to having the lowest avg velocity. They relied heavily on their CH. An easy fix for that is drafting premium velocity with a good CH. That comes in the form of Bobby Miller out of Louisville. The Mariners have done a great job since Max Weiner took over as Pitching Coordinator. They have started developing arms and racking up strikeouts. Miller would be a great arm to go with Gilbert. He runs it up to mid 90’s on avg and has a SL for a RHH and CH for LHH. The Mariners need to add velocity to their rotation and Miller fits that need.

Pick: Bobby Miller, Junior, RHP, Louisville

7)     Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates draft high school arms with the best of them. Taking Mick Abel would stick with this trend and provide a premium FF. He also offers a sharp SL and command of his pitches. He still needs to develop his CH as its shown to be inconsistent. There is a close race for first HS arm taken and normally I wouldn’t look to draft one this high. However, Abel offers the best build and pitch shape compared to his counterparts. The Pirates also love HS arms so this is a perfect fit. 

Pick: Mick Abel, HS Senior, RHP

8)     San Diego Padres – The Padres have a wealth of riches with international and HS pitching talent throughout their organization. This provides an opportunity to take a risk and a pitcher with a ton of upside that can grow with the talent they have. With that said the perfect fit is Garrett Crochet out of Tennessee. He offers premium size and velocity. Crochet does come with risks and it’s understandable why some teams would stay away. However, this is a perfect risk v reward scenario and I think the Padres can afford that risk. 

Pick: Garrett Crochet, Junior, LHP, Tennessee

9)     Colorado Rockies – The Rockies want velocity, GB’s and don’t necessarily covet a certain pitch shape. For me that rings true with Cole Wilcox out of Georgia. Wilcox sits mid 90’s and has achieved GB’s at a high clip with Georgia. He does show inconsistent mechanics and pitch shapes with his Fastball. You can see FF and FT rep. He has a short SL that produces swing and misses. He also has a hard CH that he needs to throw more. Wilcox also offers a large frame and is a draft eligible sophomore. He fits their homegrown attempt and has proven himself in a tough SEC. It’s hard to pitch in Colorado, but Wilcox fits their mold. 

Pick: Cole Wilcox, Sophomore, RHP, Georgia

10)     Los Angeles Angels – The Angels need someone that can make it to the majors quickly. That rules out HS arms and college arms that have better project ability but need time to develop. The perfect mix is C.J. Van Eyk out of Florida St. He isn’t flashy and may not have a lot of room to grow, but he is a proven commodity with four pitches. He has a 93+ mph FF that can pitch up in the zone. He needs to convert fouls balls into more swing and misses. He has a CB with impressive depth and a short SL that can produce whiffs. He also has a good CH. That 3 avg to above avg pitches to go with good velocity. That should make it easy to climb through the minors and meet Trout, Ohtani and Rendon quickly. My biggest concern is he may profile as a 4th starter which isn’t what I want with the top half of the draft. 

Pick: C.J. Van Eyk, Junior, RHP, Florida St. 

11)     Chicago White Sox – The White Sox crave a heavy Fastball usage and velocity. They also look for a CH/SL. The White Sox’s look to content now and potentially flip some of their prospects for proven talent. They have a young core and I think the best pick would be Cade Cavalli out of Oklahoma. He gives them a mid 90’s arm with good life that could match their FB approach. He does come with command issues and a need to develop his off speeds. He has a good CB that he rarely throws. He has a hard CH that could be a big swing and miss pitch against a LHH. He also has a hard SL that can be thrown against a RHH or LHH. Cavalli is a projectable arm that will need seasoning Unfortunately, the White Sox have been proven to be the worst at that in the MLB.  

Pick: Cade Cavalli, Junior, RHP, Oklahoma

12)     Cincinnati Reds – The Reds have a new regime and are all in on the development side. This is a tough pick as they have showed college and HS arms that last few years and don’t have a sure fire approach at the MLB level. At this point I would look to the highest potential that they can develop with their new regime. Jared Kelley would be a good fit out of Texas HS. He sits mid 90’s with a triple digit potential. He has two developing off speeds in his SL and CH that can be above avg. There is always risk with a flame throwing HS arm, but I think he is a good value at this point and someone they can maximize. 

Pick: Jared Kelley, HS Senior, RHP

13)  San Francisco Giants – This is where it starts to get tough with 12 arms off the board. The Giants could go a lot of ways at this point but I think the safest bet is Chris McMahon out of Miami. McMahon has grown on me throughout the process showing a 93-95 FF. It has good life to it but has been to inconsistent for me. If he can nail it down he would have an above avg FF. He also has two solid off speeds in his SL and CH. Both can get swing and misses and can still get better. It’s interesting to read that he was learning a CT because the Giants led the league in CT’s thrown in 2019. This seems like a proven college arm and good system fit. 

Pick: Chris McMahon, Junior, RHP, Miami

14)  Texas Rangers – At all costs the Rangers can’t draft a HS arm. They don’t know how to develop them and need to go the college route. But I can’t ignore how they draft and how they crave big velocity. The pick has to be Nick Bitsko the strong bodied kid out of PA. He re-classified from 2021 class so he is one of youngest players in the draft. This matches up with the Rangers international and HS prospects. Bitsko could easily be the best HS arm in the draft he just has a unique situation not being seen as much. He has the making of three above avg pitches. The FF shape is good just needs to add 1-2 mph to his sitting avg. I’d like to see more horizontal or vertical break to his CB because right now it looks like a slurve. His CH shows promise but he doesn’t throw it that much. Should be a plus pitch to a LHH. 

Pick: Nick Bitsko, HS Senior, RHP

15) Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies have a good reputation developing arms for their big league and trade ventures. The Phillies have had good success drafting college arms and led the MLB is CB thrown last season. I think this pick may be the first reach of the draft as they could get him latter but this is a good fit. My pick if Griff McGarry out of Virginia. The MLB success of Virginia pitchers is scary but I think he has so much potential with four pitches. He offers the devastating CB the Phillies like. He also has a serviceable CH and a well above avg SL. He presents two pitches that can get immediate swing and misses and a FF that has great life and will be a difference maker when he starts to sit mid 90’s. He currently is around 93 but its not hard to believe he can add 1-2 ticks onto it. This is a system fit and someone the Phillies can develop with their analytical approach.

Pick: Griff McGarry, Junior, RHP, Virginia

16)     Chicago Cubs -  According to Driveline, the Cubs are the 3rd worst team at developing big league pitching. This can be seen with their unthinkable reaches in the draft and going after raw potential. This makes it an easy choice for me going with Kyle Nicolas out of Ball St. He is one of my favorite prospects for his raw ability, but I’m afraid the Cubs will take a poor approach developing him. Nicolas doesn’t have a great track record with production or command, but his pure arsenal may be one of the best in this draft class. He sits 93-96 with his FF that has shown a lot of elite reps. He has a serviceable CH that he just needs to throw more and develop. His CB and SL may be two of the best pitches in the draft. He can throw both pitches to either a LHH or RHH. With his arsenal and potential to develop he could be a Top 5 arm in the draft. I just don’t have much faith in the Cubs, but if they get the job done they have a #2/3 starter. 

Pick: Kyle Nicolas, Junior, RHP, Ball St. 

17)     Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox like horizontal movement and a CH. On of the best options for that is Beck Way out of NW Florida St. College. Way dominated this short season and is committed to LSU. I can’t see how he makes it there as he offers a filthy arsenal. He has a FT that is gaining velocity. He throws a sweeping SL that is a big time swing and miss pitch. His CH is an above avg pitch that can be a calling card with the Red Sox. His three pitch arsenal could at the very least land him a #3 spot in the rotation. I’m a big fan of Way and think he has big strikeout ability. 

Pick: Beck Way, Sophomore, RHP, NW Florida St. College

18)     Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks know how to develop pitching and it comes from all avenues such  as HS, College, International, and trades. I’m impressed with the depth they have down on the farm. They took two LHP’s last season coming from HS and College level. One of the biggest risers on my board has been Liam Norris out of North Carolina. This may be a reach but I think he fits the Diamondbacks mold and puts him in a great spot to develop with other ultra talented arms. He offers three above avg pitches and a serviceable CH. He has great life on his FF and has the frame and ability to run it up to mid 90’s already. His SL is a good pitch to a LHH and will play a tick up on velocity as he grows. Norris needs to throw his CH more but it has a great potential against a RHH. His CB is simply amazing as its his best pitch and has big time potential. This may come as a surprise but I think it’s a great fit and 1st round talent. 

Pick: Liam Norris, HS Senior, LHP

19)     New York Mets -  The Mets led the MLB last season in fastball velocity and its easy to see why. They look to continue that trend spending heavily in the HS pitching market last year. The Mets built one of the best rotations, but it never seemed to click as Wheeler signed with Phillies and Syndergaard is now on the shelf. The best fit with their approach is another HS that can run it up out of California. Jared Jones is the pick and offers a mid 90’s FF with a lot of life. He also has room to grow with his 6-2 frame. He also offers a sweepy SL that will play heavily against a RHH. His serviceable CH is still developing and looks to be an avg to above avg pitch to both a LHH and RHH. Jones fits what the Mets look for and could develop with Allen and Wolf to present another big three. 

Pick: Jared Jones, HS Senior, RHP

20)     Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have looked for LHP recently and over the years have gone with high ceiling high risk players. They have also not demonstrated the ability to develop pitchers at a high level. The best pick for what they like would be Jared Schuster out of Wake Forest. Mid 90’s from the left side is hard to pass up and I’d trust the development system that Wake Forest has in place. Schuster also resembles the high risk high reward that the Brewers showcase. He has the potential and big stuff, but hasn’t shown much of a track record of production. He started to show it this year but only amassed four starts. 

Pick: Jared Schuster, Junior, LHP, Wake Forest

21)     St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have proven to develop arms at a high rate. However, this could be in jeopardy as I don’t see much in the pipeline currently. They have seemed to lose their way at developing arms or have seen a drafting emphasis change. The Cardinals had the highest GB% last season, a large part coming from their sinker usage. This was also carried by Dakota Hudson. With that being said, I think Bryce Jarvis out of Duke is a perfect fit and old school Cardinal pick. They have had good luck with the College route with guys such as Wacha, Weaver, Hudson and so on. Jarvis has out performed his stuff in a major way. He put together a great career at Duke and was going to set records with his 2020 campaign. Jarvis offers an avg FF velocity that produces GB and whiffs. He has a SL that can play to both a LHH and RHH. His CH is also a swing and miss pitch to a LHH. For me he throws in the zone too much with all of his pitches. Jarvis will dominate the lower levels and move quickly to St. Louis. His ceiling looks like a #4/5 starter. 

Pick: Bryce Jarvis, Junior, RHP, Duke

22)     Washington Nationals – The Nationals have eight of their Top 10 prospects as pitchers. Five of those eight were drafted out of college. The Nationals big league staff does a great job of using their arsenal and not using one pitch an excessive amount. I think the best fit for the Nationals needs would be Cole Henry out of LSU. Henry offers two fastballs in a FF and FT that both have mid 90’s potential. Each plays a purpose with a swing/miss and GB respectively. He also offers a serviceable CB and CH. Both can play above their grades being used properly and how the Nationals go about their approach. He creates four good pitch shapes that have room to develop. Only problem is he doesn’t currently have a stand out tool. 

Pick: Cole Henry, Sophomore, RHP, LSU

23)     Cleveland Indians – The Indians like their HS players and so far five are off the board. The Indians also like good vertical break and a large SL usage. Alex Santos is a perfect fit out of New York. He offers a electric FF with a SL that has a healthy amount of sweep. Both offerings look to be above avg with a heavy emphasis being played on developing a CH. His FF is 92+ and will continue to develop with his 6-4 frame. Santos fits what the Indians look to do and develop and he is a good situation. He just needs to hope their isn’t too much turnover in their development system. 

Pick: Alex Santos, HS Senior, RHP

24)     Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays were 2nd in the league in Fastball velocity and CB usage. This matches perfectly with on of my favorite arms in the draft. Clayton Beeter out of Texas Tech could be a dominant starter, but that is the question that is limiting his draft stock. The Rays are loaded with starters in the lower minors and have the ability to give Beeter time to develop. Worst case he goes into their bullpen that the Rays aren’t afraid to use early and often. He offers a perfect system fit. Beeter lives mid 90’s and has a big time CB. Beeter may have the best FF in the draft and has the ability to get consistent swing and misses with both of his pitches. Beeter would look to add a SL to give himself a swing and miss pitch to a RHH. 

Pick: Clayton Beeter, Junior, RHP, Texas Tech

25)  Atlanta Braves – The Braves are still deep with arm talent even with a lot of graduation to the big league level. A lot of their top arms are at AAA and creating a logjam with the big league team. I think with what the Braves need is to avoid risk with a HS player and draft a college arm that can take a few years in the minor and meet the young Braves core when they lose players to free agency. A good fit would be Trent Palmer out of Jacksonville. Palmer needs to clean up his body and this should give him the ability to handle starter role and improve his holding velocity. He throws a FT that gets GB’s as the Braves were top three last season in that category. He also has one of the best SL’s in the class that shows sweep and swing and miss. He has a very good CH to a LHH that has a lot of horizontal break. This may be another reach from the industry opinion, but I think Palmer matches the Braves need and approach. 

Pick: Trent Palmer, Junior, RHP, Jacksonville

26)     Oakland Athletics – The Athletics don’t have a lot of pitching depth in the minors as there Top 2 arms will most likely start the year in the big leagues. The Athletics led the league with the lowest Fastball % and the most Sinkers thrown. The Athletics will dip into FL again and take Alejandro Rosario. I think he offers them the best canvas to tailor their approach. He has a mid 90’s FT that will hold velocity as he adds weight to his frame. He also offers a very good SPL that will play well to a LHH. His SL doesn’t have a lot of reps as you can tell by the pitch shape. This will also be a development pitch that could be good if he threw it a couple ticks harder. I think this is the biggest project of all the picks so far but could be what the Athletics want out of a big league arm. 

Pick: Alejandro Rosario, HS Senior, RHP

27)     Minnesota Twins – The Twins are a hard team as they are in the middle of the pac for most metrics and don’t have a distinct approach with attacking hitters and the draft. My best chance is to go with their approach in the 2019 draft. Their first pitcher taking was Matt Canterino and he offered very good pitch shapes in a funky delivery. He was also a strong body kid from Rice. Dipping back into that well if take Christian Roa out of Texas A&M. He offers four pitches that have a chance to develop the only question is if they will get big league outs consistently. Roa has a big frame with tremendous starts against top competition. He struck out 12 to start the 2020 season against Miami. Roa has good life on his FF that could be very effective if utilized the correct way. He has a hard SL that serves as avg currently. His CB needs to be thrown a little harder but it has good depth to it. His CH is a big swing and miss pitch that he throws in the zone a lot. The Twins would need to maximize his four pitches and hope they grow into big league avg pitches. This will give Roa a #4 starter innings eating role.

Pick: Christian Roa, Junior, RHP, Texas A&M

28)     New York Yankees – The Yankees have a lot going for them. They have a lot of staff in place that knows how to develop players. They have had great success developing big league arms. They have had great success developing big league relievers. The Yankees have also dominated on the international scene. I put a lot of faith in their system and think they could get the most out of a super talent like Joe Boyle out of Notre Dame. This is a easy yet hard pick as Boyle hasn’t produced much in college other than in the Cape. He offers potentially two of the best pitches in the draft in his FF and CB. He is consistently 97+ and hits triple digits. He also has a hard CB with short depth. If Boyle can make small adjustments and has some needed time to develop he could be a power house for the Yankees when he turns 25. At the very worst the Yankees add another power arm to their bullpen. 

Pick: Joe Boyle, Junior, RHP, Notre Dame

29)     Los Angles Dodgers – This seems to be a good time for my favorite draft sleeper and a great system for him to develop in. Dodgers could easily get him in a later round, but I think his stuff justifies a 1st round pick. Bryce Miller out of Texas A&M is the pick and makes three 1st round Aggies. Miller has shown great improvement since 2019 and consistently sits mid 90’s with ease. He also offers one of the best SL in the draft. The Dodgers have a good mix of young and more experienced starters. Buehler, May and Urias are the future and Miller would offer a good compliment to those three. He also could be the new relief weapon that all teams are turning to in the playoffs. Miller has a developing CB and CH that allow him to make the leap into a starting role. Miller’s best pitch is his FF that has great life and even more potential. The Dodgers could develop a hybrid arm for their future. 

Pick: Bryce Miller, Junior, RHP, Texas A&M

30)     Baltimore Orioles – This is the start of the compensation round and the Orioles already locked up a solid pitcher across the board in Tanner Burns. The Orioles go with a little more of a risk pick, but one of the best FF’s in the draft. Gavin Williams is a talented arm out of East Carolina. He doesn’t have a lot of experience but he offers a 6-6 frame and #2/3 starter FF. He has a lot of life with the pitch and can easily hit triple digits. He also has avg CB and CH currently. The CB needs to add some velocity but it has a ton of depth to it. He needs to throw his CH more as it has a lot of horizontal break and a swing and miss potential to a LHH. The Orioles walk away with a lot of value in Williams and Burns. They also pair well with the HS picks of the 17’ and 18’ draft.  

Pick: Gavin Williams, Junior, RHP, East Carolina

31)     Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates go back to the HS well with another power arm in Cam Brown. He offers a good 6-3 frame and a FF/SL combination that the Pirates like. I think both of these picks offer a lot of risk and both need a lengthy amount of seasoning in the minors. Brown is able to sit around 92 and run it up to mid 90’s. His SL is his best pitch and one of best in the HS class. He get a lot of sweep on the pitch and will get swing and misses from RHH’s. His Ch is serviceable and can be effective to a LHH. Brown offers a little more currently than other HS prospects, but my only worry is a lot of guys will surpass him given a stronger development system.

Pick: Cam Brown, HS Senior, RHP

32)     Kansas City Royals – The Royals have already landed a super talented arm in Hancock. He is their Brady Singer from the 2019 class. Now we look for their next collegiate arm. The Royals cant afford taking a high risk high reward player this early and need to shoot for more seasoned and proven players. Seth Lonsway is a good fit and has a great resume at Ohio St. Yes, Lonsway does come with his risks such as command. However, he has four pitches and a mid 90’s FF. The production is there along with the arsenal compared to a lot of picks that just have the arsenal currently. 

Pick: Seth Lonsway, RS-Sophomore, LHP, Ohio St. 

33)     Arizona Diamondbacks – The depth is enormous with their system and they picked up Norris already. They best available arm would have to be Slade Cecconi at this point. This is also a good spot for Cecconi as he can develop and get the most out of his stuff. His pitches are right around avg currently, but they offer so much more potential. Cecconi does a good job of throwing strikes and controlling the zone but he can afford to expand the zone with his FF. It has good life but inconsistent shape. The Diamondbacks can add a consistent life to the pitch. His CH looks to be his best pitch and can continue to get harder as he sits more mid 90’s. His SL needs to develop and either add more horizontal break or add velocity.

Pick: Slade Cecconi, Sophomore, RHP, Miami

34)     San Diego Padres – The Padres got one of the best raw arms in Crochet with an early pick. This time I’d attack the HS well and grab an electric, raw player from Kentucky. Jackson Fristoe offers an electric FF that you can’t beat. Yes, he may not have the consistent velocity like other HS prospects, but he offers a larger frame and more potential. As he adds velocity his CB and SL will play up. They just need to grow but their pitch shapes are fine currently. This may be a reach but the Padres can afford to do that and reap the benefits as he matures. 

Pick: Jackson Fristoe, HS Senior, RHP

35)  Colorado Rockies – I can say for certain that I’m not a big fan of this pitcher but I think this could be his best fit for success. I also think as far as the industry goes this isn’t a reach of a pick. Carmen Mlodzinski is the pick out of South Carolina. This makes sense because he is the definition of a GB pitcher. It’s hard to know what you have in Mlodzinski after what he did in the Cape and how he performed at South Carolina. The velocity could be there or he could be low 90’s. Either way as he develops I think he could succeed at Coors Field. He has five pitches and all induce GB’s. He needs to throw his CH a lot more in the zone. He doesn’t throw his CB but it has good depth and could be a solid pitch. His CT is good to compliment his FT but they accomplish similar things. Mlodzinski will need to develop his off speeds and figure out his best chance for success. 

Pick: Carmen Mlodzinski, RS-Sophomore, RHP, South Carolina

36)  Cleveland Indians – The Indians picked up Santos earlier serving as their prototypical pick. Now they look to Will Klein out of Eastern Illinois. Klein offers the FF velocity and rise that the Indians look for. He has a good CH that he doesn’t throw a lot and also needs to throw more in the zone. His CB has great depth and performed well in college. This is a good system fit with the Indians and provides Klein with a good development system to get the most out of his FF. 

Pick: Will Klein, Junior, RHP, Eastern Illinois

37)  Tampa Bay Rays – This pick was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals and is the last pick in the compensation round. The Rays scooped up Beeter earlier who fits exactly what they want in an arm. Another guy that fits the mold is R.J. Dabovich. This may be a reach because he has no starting experience but he offers a starters arsenal. He offers the mid 90’s FF and a developing CB that he just needs to throw more. The FF has good life and I think can perform in a starting role. His SL is sharp and creates a lot of swing and misses. He could throw it in the zone a tad more to create an even better pitch. Dabovich and Beeter offer large frames with premium velocity.

Pick: R.J. Dabovich, Junior, RHP, Arizona St. 

Richard T. Karcher wrote a research article looking at various aspects from1996-2011. Drasft data shows the % that will make the majors and another % that will play 3+ years in the majors. Below is the demographics of the mock draft that you just read.

·       9 HS Pitchers (5 will make the majors, 3 will play 3+ years)

·       28 College Pitchers (20 will make the majors, 14 will play 3+ years)

·       6 LHP

·       31 RHP

As you can see, drafting a HS arm is a risky business as only 1/3 will last 3+ years in the MLB. The HS arms taken do offer a lot of upside, but a lot of uncertainty.