Top 10 Off-Speeds: RHP Collegiate Prospects

Once again, an organization can improve or destroy certain parts that make pitchers good. That is why it is so hard at projecting a player because if put in the right system they can flourish. On the flip side, a player could miss certain development because they are restricted to a certain pitch in a certain count or a cookie cutter program. Certain organizations have a track record for not producing pitchers and its devastating for those players careers.

A certain pitch can get a leg up when it can play well to a RHH and LHH. Generally, a CH plays to a LHH, a SL plays to a RHH, and a CB plays to a LHH. A pitch that plays to both will be graded higher than one that just plays to one side. A pitcher’s goal should be to throw their best pitch in any count for a swing and miss. Just look at Lance McCullers throwing 24 straight CB in the ALCS. These pitches below won’t get barreled and should produce a large amount of swing and misses if executed.

When looking at a prospect we want a premium FF. Off-speeds are important, but we think we can develop them given a good organization and surrounding coaches. However, we can’t’ overlook these off-speeds from some of the best RHP’s in college. Each of these pitches have present value and can help these players move quickly in the lower minors. All these players have good FF to go with their off-speed.

1 – Joe Boyle, Junior, Notre Dame

Boyle provides a sharp CB that doesn’t have a ton of depth but is thrown mid 80’s to counter act that. It looks like he tries to throw a SL and CB but they look to be the same pitch. This is a devastating pitch to go with a triple digit FF. Looks like at times he catches a lot of the zone and I’d like to see this pitch develop into a 70% out of zone pitch. German Marquez had the hardest CB velocity in the MLB last season at 84.8 so this pitch will most likely turn into a SL down the line. Marquez created 24% swing strike which is a healthy amount. It also checked out as a positively graded pitch and 7th overall. This pitch could be a money maker and help Boyle develop into a dominant reliever. He is imposing at 6’7” and needs to work out his control issues. Once developed though he will have two elite pitches.

2 – Kyle Nicolas, Junior, Ball St.

Nicolas has two pitches on this list with his SL coming in 2nd overall. He throws it mid 80’s and a good amount of horizontal break. It looks to create a lot of swing and misses, and he needs to throw it at a 50-50 clip between in zone and out of zone. Max Scherzer had the 2nd best SL in the MLB last year and sat mid 80’s as well. Scherzer produces some of the highest swing and miss % every year. Seeing how he attacks hitters with his SL would provide great context as they both have a similar arsenal. Scherzer throws his 18-20% of the time. This should be Nicolas go to pitch when he is looking to put a hitter away.

3 – Max Meyer, Junior, Minnesota

It is very hard to put Meyer’s SL this low on the list. He has a short break and upper 80’s offering. It was hard to find a video of this pitch being put in play during the short 2020 season. He may throw it too much out of the zone. An upper 80’s SL would be a top 5 velocity for the pitch in the MLB. Gerrit Cole threw his 23% of the time last year and sat at 89 mph. Like Cole, Meyer provides premium FF velocity, but needs to learn how to throw his SL in the zone more. Cole started seeing better results when he threw it harder and more in the zone. Meyer looks to be throwing it harder in 2020 which is a good start.

4 – Zach McCambley, Junior, Coastal Carolina

McCambley took a step forward this year with his CB and throws it low 80’s. This is still hard for a CB and would place him in the 15-20 range in the MLB. Merrill Kelly is an interesting comp as they have a similar arsenal. He threw his CB 21% of the time which gives McCambley a good person to mirror on approach. He created a lot of spin with his CB and he needs to learn how to pitch as his 2019 production doesn’t match his arsenal. A good CB is harder to develop than a SL placing his pitch a head of some good offerings. I’m interested to see if he develops a swing and miss pitch for a RHH or if he goes all in on this one.

5 – Bryce Miller, Junior, Texas A&M

Miller has taken some good steps in 2020 to develop his SL. He added a good amount of velo to make the sharp break more effective. Max Scherzer is an obvious comparison for a great off-speed. Scherzer’s best pitch is arguably his SL and he throws it 86 mph on average. He has had over 25% swing and misses since 2015. Miller has a similar arsenal as Scherzer and could throw his SL over 20% of the time to get a lot of whiffs. It performed very well in the short 2020 season and has developed into a plus pitch and a reason for Miller to be a starter in pro baseball.

6 – Kyle Nicolas, Junior, Ball St.

Nicolas makes the list again with his CB. He has good depth with the pitch and offers another above average pitch to get swing and misses. Nicolas can throw his CB to a LHH and the SL to a RHH. Like McCambley, he throws a decently hard CB, but it has more 12-6 to it. Nicolas will need to learn how to best utilize his arsenal and attack hitters from all counts. He has a good FB but his off speeds will justify a higher draft slot.

7 – Cade Cavalli, Junior, Oklahoma

Cavalli throws a mid 80’s SL that has short break. He has developed it creating more whiffs in 2020 compared to 2019. In 2019 he had trouble executing the pitch and didn’t throw it as much. He was also able to get a little more break in 2020. From this pitch he needs to differentiate and create a CB. This creates a great offering to go with his mid 90’s FF. Just like Bryce Miller he needs to throw this over 20% and more to RHH’s.  

8 – Beck Way, Sophomore, NW Florida St. College

Way can create a lot of horizontal break and his CH is no exception. He throws it mid 80’s and can throw it even more to a LHH. His FT has similar action and is a great overlay. Way can throw this offering a little harder as look to enlist it like Luis Castillo who has one of the best in the MLB. Castillo took a massive leap this year when he decided to throw it outside the zone almost 15% more than any other season. His Swinging Strike % didn’t go up but his contact % went down. This helped produce over 153 strikeouts. Way doesn’t have the velo like Castillo but he is still developing and has a plus SL in his arsenal. A CH is a hard pitch to develop and this will help Way put away hitters early in his career.

9 – Trent Palmer, Junior, Jacksonville

Palmer has a frisbee SL that has a lot of horizontal break. It also created a lot of swing and misses this season to compliment his GB producing FT. Jakob Junis as he creates the 3rd most horizontal movement in the MLB. He also throws it exclusively with his fastball. Those two pitches have given him 30+ big league starts the last two seasons. Palmer is going to need to use this pitch exclusively for swing and misses because his FT isn’t built to accomplish that. Palmer needs a team that values GBs and developing his 3-pitch arsenal.

10 – Cole Wilcox, Sophomore, Georgia

Wilcox has a short SL that has lost some velocity since 2019. I think if Wilcox gets with the right organization his SL and FF will take massive strides. He needs to develop his pitches as they look inconsistent and that’s the only reason its at #10 currently. He is only a sophomore and he has a large frame so development is still to be had. I’m torn on another year at Georgia as his off speeds haven’t improved and his FF has taken a step back from 2019. SL does have a big whiff potential.

Bonus Off-Speeds

Beck Way, Sophomore, NW Florida St. College

Way just missed having another pitch on this list with his SL. Way knows how to spin the ball and create massive horizontal break in each direction. He throws it low 80’s and, unlike Palmer, he has yet another pitch to get swing and misses. This pitch will give RHH’s a fit while his CH will do the same to LHH’s.

Tanner Burns, Junior, Auburn

Burns did a great job developing his SL going into 2020. He needed to add more break and tighten up the shape of the pitch. In 2019 it was too inconsistent and didn’t create enough positive results. In the short 2020 season he created a lot of swing and misses and sat mid 80’s. This was a few ticks up from 2019. This pitch belongs in the Top 10 and would have surpassed a few if not for the shortened season.