Top 10 Fastballs: RHP Collegiate Prospects

This list identifies the top collegiate Fastballs from a RHP. All these players would give an organization premium velocity and pitch shapes. This would allow them to hammer out secondaries and issues such as command. Players with these assets can thrive in certain systems and ballparks.

First, lets look at premium velocity. According to Fangraphs, six of the top ten teams in FB velocity made the playoffs in 2019. All ten teams averaged over 94 mph and the players listed below averaged 94.6 mph in the abbreviated 2020 season. The velocity that these players posses is what is necessary to compete for a playoff spot. There is also a significant correlation between average mph and whiff %. When looking at whiff % five of the top six teams made the playoffs. Three of those teams also made the championship series. Velocity plays a big part in whiff % but it’s not the only thing.

Next, we take a look at premium pitch shapes. According to Fangraphs, seven of the top ten teams in vertical break made the playoffs in 2020. Vertical break is the next highest correlation to whiff % and determines how pitchers attack the strike zone. Vertical break allows pitchers to climb the ladder and we start to see the zones with the most whiffs. Not all of these players posses the premium vertical break but they do have the ability to obtain it given the right development system.   

We have seen how Fastballs have impacted the game with the Nationals and Astros series in 2019. Both teams rank in the top ten of whiff %, vertical break, and average FB velocity. Cole, Scherzer, Verlander and Strasburg all have premium velocity coming out of college and went in the 1st round. All were the most important players in this years World Series. A lot of collegiate pitchers may not know how to utilize the weapon they posses like the Astros and Nationals arms. Once again, this is when the team drafting these players comes into play.

Only nine MLB organizations had a positively graded Fastball in 2019 according to Fangraphs. In our eyes we look to draft the hardest thing to develop and then give them the secondary pitches to succeed once they are drafted. The easiest secondary pitch to develop would be a SL followed by a CB and then CH. According to Fangraphs, out of active players there is 22 players with a positively graded SL, 16 with a CB, and 14 with a CH. This is one way to see the pecking order for off speeds.

1 – Clayton Beeter, RS-Sophomore, Texas Tech

There is no doubting his FF ability. He has produced in two seasons at Texas Tech. In 2019 he led the team in saves and had 40 K’s in 20.2 IP. His K/9 was down this year, but he was producing as a starter with a 2.13 ERA. He has a very simple delivery that is low effort. He has a high release point that will help his vertical break play up. He produces a lot of whiffs with his FF and it compliments his CB very well. This is the premier FF in the draft and can reach into the upper 90’s with ease. The only thing he can improve is sitting at a higher velocity AVG which will come as he develops in the minors. The Dodgers, Indians or Rays make the most sense for Beeter in the 1st round.

2 – Joe Boyle, Junior, Notre Dame

Boyle stand out on his pure velocity as he has sat 97-98 the last two seasons. He doesn’t posses the life or production that Beeter has, but based on pure velocity, Boyle might have the best FF. There does seem to be some inconsistent arm slot causing a lack of the rise that we want to see. An MLB team can adjust that very quickly and make this a monster of a pitch. My biggest concern is the ability to be a starter. At this point he has proven to be a bullpen arm with control issues. He did produce in the Cape Cod summer league and was developing this year with Notre Dame. He is a 6’7” athlete and taller pitches take longer to develop making their big-league debut at 25 and first 2 WAR season at 27. He turns 21 this August so that provides 4-6 more years to develop. At worst he will be a triple digit reliever that may come with some command issues.

3 – Bryce Miller, Junior, Texas A&M

One of my favorite draft prospects has shown mid 90’s velocity the last two seasons with A&M. He has 52 K’s in 36 IP combined. He shows great life on his FF that can become more consistent. He is a reliever that I believe can take a starter role with whichever organization drafts him. He looks to hold his velocity and has secondary pitches to give starting a shot. He does have room to add weight to his 6’2” build and handle the rigors of added innings as he hasn’t thrown more that 30 innings in a season. Miller is use to the high leverage situations and could be a bullpen arm that a lot of MLB teams are turning to in the postseason.

4 – Max Meyer, Junior, Minnesota

Meyer could be the first collegiate RHP off the board this year. He has amassed 187 K’s in 148 IP at Minnesota in a starter or relief role. He has a career 2.07 ERA and 18 saves. Once Meyer gets drafted, he will no longer need to worry about hitting which could unlock a lot of development opportunities. He was sitting 97 this year compared to 94 in 2019. He has a slightly below 3/4 arm slot but creates a lot of whiffs. I think he would be a guy that benefits from avoiding up in the zone for a go to swing and miss compared to other guys on this list. If it wasn’t for his 6’0” frame, Meyer would be the first player taken in the draft. Meyer would be a great fit for the Royals in the first round. He fits their build and gives them another collegiate arm.

5 – Jack Hartman, Senior, Appalachian St.

Hartman sits mid 90’s and has electric life on his FF. He has pitched in relief the last two seasons with 48 K’s in 33.2 IP. He does have a good number of walks and hasn’t produced as should given his stuff. This would be drafting a player based on upside over production history. He does also throw a CT that has produced good results. He has a great 6’3” frame that can add weight and look to increase his velocity AVG. For him its figuring out his command issues and getting in an organization that sees his ability to start. He has the stuff to succeed he just needs the right development.

6 – Emerson Hancock, Junior, Georgia

You can’t argue with the velocity in 2019 sitting mid 90’s. However, he sat lower this year and saw inconsistent results in the short season. He doesn’t have a true FF as his fastball looks more like a FT. He does have the ability to throw a FF that would produce more whiffs and less foul balls. I think his problem has been putting away hitters. He currently is a GB pitcher where most guys on this list pitch for fly balls and swing and misses. I think Hancock climbs on this list if he goes to a team that can get the best out of him. The Tigers and Royals would most likely not change much so you would get a good version of Hancock. I think the Orioles would get the most out of Hancock where he is slated to get drafted. Miami would be a disaster most likely. I don’t think he gets past the Mariners at 6.

7 – John McMillon, Senior, Texas Tech

McMillon has a FF that looks to have a lot of rise and sits 94+. He gets a lot of whiffs and needs to locate up in the zone more often to go with his devastating SL. He has been able to fill a lot of roles for Texas Tech as a closer, starter and reliever. I think you let him continue as a reliever and climb the ladder quickly. He has two above average pitches and can look to develop a CB once he is taken. However, this isn’t usually a successful path and an investment in the top four rounds. In college baseball you rarely see the workload as you would in the big leagues. I think McMillon has a strong frame to hold up to the demand. You could also develop him as a piggyback starter in certain organizations.

8 – Gavin Williams, Junior, East Carolina

6’6” and sits mid 90’s is very appealing to any organization. He doesn’t have the explosiveness that a lot of guys on the list have but he can keep improving. He needs to also not rely on the FF as much when he falls behind in the count. Williams hasn’t been able to establish himself as a starter, but the potential is there with three pitches. With Williams the biggest improvement will be when to throw what and improving his off speeds.

9 – Connor Phillips, Freshman, McLennan CC

Phillips has a mid 90’s FF that has a lot of developmental potential. He hasn’t shown the ability to throw enough strikes and looks to have an average shape on his FF. He won’t be very effective at a big-league level until he throws more strikes with his FF and off-speeds. You can’t argue with the potential though sitting mid 90’s and ability to add to the shape.

10 – Tanner Burns, Junior, Auburn

Burns had an outstanding career with 210 K’s over 188.2 IP. He produced a 2.86 ERA over 36 career starts. Burns is a sure fire first rounder with four above average pitches. He looks to have a lot of rise to his FF and he can establish that pitch up in the zone. He also has a devastating SL that produces a great number of whiffs. I think Burns would be a terrific pick for the Angels who could have a SP that could travel fast through the minors to help quickly. He may be one of the safer picks with four plus pitches and a wealth of experience. Should be in AA by end of first full season.

BONUS FF’s

Cole Wilcox, Sophomore, Georgia

Wilcox was off to a dominating start to the season and would have overtaken Hancock as the first Georgia pitcher taken. This could still happen with his mid 90’s FF. For me he is too inconsistent with the pitch with a lot of FF and FT action. He doesn’t have much life with the pitch. 2019 showed more of a FT while this year just shows a blend. He has plus off-speeds and could have an electric arsenal if developed. Wilcox has a lot more development but a higher ceiling than almost everyone on this list. I’d take Wilcox in the first round but if he goes back to Georgia, he could be 1-1 in 2021. You also can’t argue with a 6’5” frame and another year with the Georgia S&C team.

Tyler Brown, Junior, Vanderbilt

Again, drafting relievers in the top 5 rounds is risky business. I do like his ability with four pitches to give starting a shot. His FF took a step back this year, but his 2019 production is enough to warrant a bonus spot on this list. In 2019 he looked to have a lot more movement on the pitch. This year it looked to not create as much whiffs. He does have a similar 93-94 average velocity but not as much life. He could be another piggyback option that could develop into a new age reliever going multiple innings in a save. I don’t think another year of college would help and that a team would take him top five rounds with his resume.