Against the Industry: RHP Prospects

Over the course of our evaluation period there is prospects that we grade out higher than the industry. Various sources post their prospect rankings and these eight graded out highest on ours. A lot goes into what we look for, but we think these guys have been undervalued through the process and could end up being steals. They will be taken lower than where our grade suggests, and whichever team scoops them up will have a steal.

A lot goes into how these players develop after being drafted. It all starts with the team that takes them. Driveline wrote a great article displaying the teams that produce pitching and those that don’t. Unfortunately, we will never know if we are right on our evaluation because we can’t put them into a good fit personally. Certain metrics that we covet may be changed by another organization bringing that players value down. However, an organization with similar beliefs could create a different beast and propel them in the right direction.

We have determined what metrics are harder to teach or develop and look to draft those metrics. We also know what can be taught to these players and take that into consideration. There is value in college relievers that have some plus pitches that can be developed into starters. Player evaluation is never perfect, but the industry has come a long way in recent years. The Astros, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers and Nationals have dominated in developing pitching and that all starts with their big board.

1) Bryce Miller, RHP, Texas A&M – Miller is a 6’2” 190 LB. Junior that we have identified throughout every phase. Miller is a reliever at A&M that has a SP arsenal. His FF sits mid 90’s with a lot of vertical break. If pitched the right way, it could be very effective to a RHH and LHH. His SL is another big-time whiff pitch that has short break and a lot of spin. His FF and SL have both taken a step up since the 2019 campaign that he had 43K’s in 28.2 IP. His CB shows a lot of vertical break and if he threw it harder could be more effective. His last pitch is a CH that hasn’t been seen in 2020 and wasn’t thrown enough in 2019. It could be a plus pitch for a LHH.

This arsenal suggests that he could be a starter once he hits the minors and his FF would be an above average pitch that could propel him quickly. A&M has a couple high draft picks in their rotation, but Miller has been hidden in the bullpen. We have a RD 1 grade on Miller, and it has been hard to find a way to knock him. He has a frame to add weight and four pitches that can gets outs to a LHH and RHH. Miller has also proven himself in the SEC for two years.

The game has changed with recent post season runs and Miller could play a role in many ways as a SP, Long Reliever and CL.

2) Griff McGarry, RHP, Virginia – At 6’2” 185 McGarry is a Junior that has a solid frame that can gain some size. It’s unfortunate he only has four starts this season as he was coming into his own. He had a major command issue in 2019 that has still plagued him in 2020. This is his only limiting factor so far. He has four above average pitches that still have room to grow. His FF velocity is low to mid 90’s with a ton of vertical break and above average spin. If he can hit 95/96 more often, he will unleash a dangerous weapon. His SL is another high spin pitch that is dangerous to a RHH. His CB is devastating to a LHH and has an unreal amount of spin and vertical break. McGarry has a CH that is serviceable that can look to add more horizontal break.

If McGarry gets picked by the right organization, he can skyrocket up the ranks once his command is settled. He has four above average pitches that warrant his RD 1 grade that we have given him. All four pitches were performing highly this year and with a full year he would have seen his stock skyrocket. My biggest reservation with McGarry is that Virginia doesn’t have the best track record producing big league arms. McGarry has everything that a smart organization is looking for. Now it’s about getting the most out of his arsenal.

3) Beck Way, RHP, NW Florida St. College – This 6’4” Sophomore is one of our favorite prospects and the industry is high on him as well. We gave him a RD 1 grade, so we are really confident in him. We would rather have a FF than a FT but Way makes it work. Way has three very good pitches and his FT and CH have a massive amount of horizontal break. His FT has mid 90’s potential and his CH is an out pitch to a LHH. His SL is devastating and works to both sides of the plate.

Way provides a tantalizing frame and three above average pitches. His main development would be a CB in pro baseball. He also showcased good command this season with only 9 BB in 40 IP. He also had 58k’s on the short season. Way may not fit this list as the industry likes him, but we are very high and confident on his ability.

4) Jack Hartman, RHP, Appalachian St – This 6’3” Senior has dominated the evaluation process and will be a steal for a lucky organization as he may fall to UDFA depending on how many rounds there are this year. Hartman flashes mid 90’s FF and good spin on all three of his pitches. His CB looks to play against both sides of the plate with a lot of vertical break. He also has a short SL that he can add more velocity or horizontal break to get swing and misses. He also throws a CT that looks to be a good pitch to a LHH or RHH. His best pitch is his CB, but the FF may surpass it with a little seasoning. If he can add vertical break it will play up with his current velocity.

The main two drawbacks with Hartman are his production and that he is a reliever. He has the arsenal to be a starter but hasn’t proven it yet. An organization that could grow him in a piggyback role could get the most out of him in his first few seasons. You could then put him in pen full time and have a for sure big-league reliever. He has had a command issue that needs to be addressed.

Hartman has two above average pitches (FF, CB) and another that could develop into one (SL). He has a lot of qualities that could develop into a starting pitcher and at worst a big-league reliever. We are very high on Jack Hartman and give him a RD 3-5 grade. This is a lot higher than the industry and most likely won’t be met if there is only five rounds this year. Could end up being a premier UDFA.

5) John McMillon, RHP, Texas Tech – An imposing 6’3” Senior that has been dominant in his reliever role. He was off to a great start this season striking out 7 against FSU in 2.1 IP. He also showed starting ability his sophomore year. McMillon sits mid 90’s and has a ton of vertical break. His FF is one of the best in the draft and has some potential to still grow. He also possesses a short SL that creates a lot of whiffs. He needs to create more spin and horizontal break on it but it does play well currently.

His situation is very intriguing because he does have leverage, but a team could pick him up as a UDFA if the draft is only five rounds. We have a RD 3-5 grade on him and think the right club could develop him as a starter but worst case he is a big-league reliever. Bet on his big FF and develop a third pitch once drafted.

6) Connor Pellerin, RHP, Tulane – At 6’4”, this Junior provides a great frame to develop as a starter once he reaches pro ball. Pellerin was off to a great start this year for Tulane and was trying to get rid of the command issues that plagued his first two years of college. He can create a lot of whiffs with his FF and has room to improve. He is currently sitting mid 90’s and can improve as he adds to his frame. He creates a lot of spin with
his CB that also has a lot of horizontal break.

Pellerin needs to develop a SL and polish his command to be a great draft pick. We have a RD 3-5 grade on Pellerin and think with his frame and FF he can become a SP and at worst a high end closer. He showcased his potential with 13 IP and no earned runs in the Cape Cod league last summer.

7) Zach Brzykcy, RHP, Virginia Tech – Brzykcy is well built Junior at 6’2” 215. Of course, there is a lot of red flags when it comes to production and command. He is also a reliever that got off to a rough start this season. He does have an electric FF that can be built upon with good development. It has a ton of vertical break and sits low to mid 90’s. He also has a slurve that can be developed into two above average pitches. It currently has a lot of spin and would give a put away pitch to RHH and LHH.

Ultimately, he looks to be a very good reliever that just needs to develop. A high end closer with multi inning potential is more important than ever. A team that could develop him as a piggyback role could help build that potential. He will end up being a closer and provided a glimpse of his potential in the Cape Cod. His pitch arsenal provided him with a RD 3-5 grade and a team could see an issue drafting a closer if there is only five rounds this year.

8) Spencer Strider, RHP, Clemson – The RS-Sophomore is coming off injury and provides a tough evaluation period for Strider as he only got four starts before the end of the year. He possesses a FF that can sit in the mid 90’s and velocity will grow as he gets back into his grove. He also has a lot of vertical break that can produce a lot of whiffs. His CB is also developing and has a lot of spin. To capitalize on his FF, I’d like to see the team that drafts him develop a SL.

We have a RD 6-8 grade on Strider, and this would have climbed if he had a full year to provide production. We like the potential with his FF and think an organization that sees his potential can develop some off speeds.