Top Senior RHP’s
This years draft could put teams and players in a very interesting situation. Does a senior that doesn’t go in the five rounds go back to school or sign for 20k? Does the MLB team draft a senior or take the bargain for 20k? However, now they are competing against every other MLB team to get that player. Very tough decisions are ahead and at the end of the day it’s a business. MLB organizations priority is to accumulate the best talent and these players have immense talent. If it weren’t for the minimal money each of these players would be in a good situation picking the team they wanted to play for. The Astros, Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers and Nationals have proven to develop big league pitching. I would go after these nine if they hit the UDFA market. These players could bet on themselves and choose their desired team and go for a dream.
1) Landon Knack – A spike in velocity has helped Knack climb draft boards and guaranteed a draft selection. He now hits upper 90’s to go with his superior control. In 2019 Knack has a FF that sat low 90’s and was very hit table. It didn’t have a swing and miss tendency and was below avg. He has a good looking SL that has a great pitch shape. He also has a very good CH that produces swing and misses. I am a little worried that he throws it out of the zone too much. This may not produce as good of results as he climbs levels. If it wasn’t for his increase in velocity I wouldn’t have used a draft pick in this draft situation. Knack is a safer bet than players below him based on his production and starting experience. Tyler Duffey is a good MLB comp as he finally settled into a successful reliever role. Duffey offers good command and a FF/SL combo.
2) Jack Hartman – The Arsenal that Hartman posses is one of my favorites in the draft. It’s just hard to get around the lack of production and control in his career. He has also been a reliever for Appalachian St. I think he will be the best 20k signing and he will be able to choose from the teams mentioned earlier. Hartman has a big FF that is electric. He compliments that with a CT that needs a tad more horizontal break. His SL is sharp and could use a tick or two more velocity. Hartman has a big CB that has good depth to it. That’s four pitches and the arsenal to be a starting pitcher to start his MILB career. Personally, I’d use a 5th round pick on Hartman, but my big board would have to dictate that value. Hartman will find himself in high demand in this years draft situation. Michael Lorenzen is a big league comp that posses a similar arsenal. Lorenzen utilizes his FF and CT a lot and gives Hartman a development idea in his CH.
3) John McMillon – I previously wrote about McMillon’s big time FF. He sits mid 90’s and can hit triple digits. Unlike other arms on this list, McMillon has starting experience. He stuff has played up in his bullpen role as he had 20k’s in only nine innings this year. McMillon was drafted in the 11th round last year by the Tigers. His FF has a lot of rise and can produce more whiffs as he utilizes it better. He has a sharp SL that is a dominant secondary pitch. He does a good job of throwing it in the zone just enough and then expanding the zone. I’d like to see him develop a CB that he can use against a LHH. The biggest issue with McMillon is his future is in the pen and the value doesn’t match up with a Top 5 round pick. The draft scenario is very tough for a player like McMillon because he is a Top 10 round talent. Michael Felix is a good big league comp that has a reliever success with the Pirates.
4) Garrett Acton – We see from Acton a similar profile to McMillon just without the extra juice McMillon posses. Acton has good rise to his FF and a big CB. He could serve learning a SL to upgrade his arsenal. Acton is a fast climbing reliever in the minors and could become a different dog if he sees a velocity increase. For Acton, he needs to pick a team that has proven to increase velocity (Astros) and will cherish his pitch shapes. As mentioned in other articles the SL is probably the easiest pitch to develop so that shouldn’t be a major issue. He would want a SL with some sweep and sits 82-84 mph range. MLB comp would be John Means. Acton wont be in that starter role but he has similar stuff as Means and could look at his SL for guidance. It was Means biggest whiff pitch in 2019.
5) Chase Antle – Starting was not kind to Antle as he lacked command. This season with Coastal Carolina he showed command even though it was the smallest of samples. Antle posses premium velocity and that is something that will keep you in the game for a long time. He has a lot of potential with his FF and also has a pretty good CB that can show very good depth at times. Just like Acton he could use a development pitch in a SL. It will most likely need to be a sharp SL that he can throw 85-87 mph. Antle has major control issues that will push him to the 20k range but he will be a top talent available. His best big league comp is Tayron Guerrero who has an electric FF but has major command issues.
6) Jonathan Hughes – The raw arsenal is there, but the right development will be needed to get the most out of Hughes. There are some good reps with his FF but it is a below avg pitch. He sits low 90’s and would need to see a 1-2 mph increase to get it to an avg pitch. His CH has a lot of horizontal break and can play really well to a LHH. His CB is slow with a lot of depth to it. Could develop into a good pitch to a LHH. His best pitch is a SL that he could throw to both sides. Given his lack of production I would say his approach to hitters was off. When Hughes understands what his arsenal is capable of he may take off. I think he has the raw ability to get better and give himself a long career. His MLB comp would be Jordan Yamamoto who just turned in a solid rookie season. They posses a similar arsenal and a very good SL. He uses his CB just as much and has similar velocity with his FF, SL, and CB.
7) Luke Smith – You have to love the fire and intensity that Smith brings to the game. Smith offers a devastating SL that he needs to use as his focal point. He didn’t create enough swing and misses with the pitch and he should utilize it a large % of the time to a RHH. His CH is a good swing and miss pitch. Ryan Dull is his MLB comp and Smith could end up being a better version. Dull had a very good season in 2016 and offers a similar arsenal to Smith. Dull lives exclusively with his FB and SL which is the best route for Smith. Smith might see a play up in velocity as well in the bullpen. His FF doesn’t have as much life as it should and if he develops his pitch shape he could see a spike in whiffs and less contact.
8) Will Spiers – Clemson got the most out of Spiers and he produced a good career as their closer. Spiers doesn’t offer an outstanding metrics but he does have a good SL to go with his FF and CH. He has potential for a good FF but shows too many FT reps. He needs to ditch the FT and capitalize on rise with his FF. He has a CH that plays well to a LHH but still profiles as a below avg pitch. Spiers best pitch is a sweepy SL that can dominate a RHH. Asher Wojciechowski is a good MLB comp and Spiers should look to develop a CB with his arsenal. Woj. Throws his off speeds a little harder but Spiers has a very similar fastball. Spiers could be a great 20k option that can move quickly as a reliever.
9) Kyle Mora – This is a very interesting prospect and 20k value. He wont be near the top of the UDFA but he could offer tremendous value and the ability to pick his team is huge. The Yankees have a track record of producing reliever and that may be a perfect fit. Mora has a great track record of success at UCLA, but he offers little potential with his FB sitting 86 and topping at 88. He does have some potential with his FF with good reps and an aggressive velocity plan could help Mora. Three secondary pitches help Mora take heat off his FF. He has an avg SL, slightly below avg CH and a serviceable CB. He gets most of his swing and misses from his SL. Given his lack of velocity the most obvious MLB comp is Sergio Romo who has made a living off his SL. Mora will need to dedicate himself to his SL and CH and use his FF sparingly. Given Mora’s success I would bet on him.