Toronto Blue Jays Part 2: Josh Donaldson
In 2017 Donaldson missed a large amount of games due to a right calf strain. He was still able to put up All-Star numbers and post his highest home run to fly ball ratio. Even with All-Star numbers Donaldson had some unusual metrics. He hit .255 on the fastball (.275 career Avg), .256 on BABIP (.300 career Avg), 77.3% zone contact (82.9% career) and 76.1% contact (80.5% career).
What accounted for the career lows on a pitch that Donaldson typically feasted on? One issue may have been the right calf injury that landed him on the DL. He missed a majority of the first two months of the season. He then hit .247 in June and .216 in July. His lack of power was evident with only 8 homer runs in June/July and 52 strikeouts. With a fastball Donaldson tries to sit in his back hip and get his front foot down early. He looks to get his weight into his right heel and get it through the ground. This creates a feeling of being grounded in that back hip. By having a bum calf, Donaldson cannot produce the same force into the ground that he wants and diminishes his bat speed.
Lets fast forward to 2018 and Donaldson has a healed calf and is coming off 24-second half home runs. His rhythm and timing is back to the norm. In 2018, Donaldson has stayed away from chasing the outside fastball; he is swinging at the fastball less as a whole and is only chasing the best ones in the zone. He has a 90+ zone contact and overall contact percentage. What is most fascinating is that he only swings and misses at a 2.4% of his fastballs.
2018 has produced a new issue and a new injury. Donaldson recently went on the DL for dead arm or right shoulder issue. So far the slider has been his biggest hole. He is 0-12 with 7 Ks. On the slider his zone contact % and outside contact % are both down 5%. His swinging strike is up 12% as well. Pitchers have seen this trend and used it to their advantage. Before he went to the DL he was seeing sliders 24.2% of the time.
Does his shoulder issue have any implications on him not hitting the slider? Well, lets look at whom he has faced so far this season and how their sliders stack up. He started the year going 0-3 against Severino who held hitters to a .182 Avg and 122 strikeouts on the slider in 2017. He then matched up with Tanaka who produced a 0-4 with 3 Ks. Tanaka had 83 Ks and a .196 batting Avg against in 2017. Next up was Minor who he went 0-4 with 2 Ks against. Minor had a .184 batting Avg against in 2017. Finally was Bundy who he managed a hit against but still went 1-4 with 2 Ks. Bundy has had an unhittable slider this season producing 17 Ks and a .091 batting Avg.
For Donaldson, the shoulder issue could be from his lower body issues during the 2017 season. His inability to use the lower body could lead to upper body swing issues and in turn diminished shoulder conditions. His shoulder can also cause a loss of posture and cause his front foot to not be on time for a slower pitch. I think a mix of this and facing dominant slider pitchers has caused his early season issues.
With all this being said Donaldson is still a premium bat and a bona fide All-Star. He will be 33 in the 2019 season and will be entering free agency after this year. It’s smart for the Blue Jays to take a look at trade options even if they are in the playoff chase. They have a superstar 3B in Vladimir Guerreo Jr. looking primed for the big leagues. The Blue Jays are set up to get a lot younger when 2019 rolls around. They drop the Russell Martin, Marco Estrada, Kendrys Morales, and J.A. Happ contracts. That’s a combined $57 million that they can build their club up with 4-5 players that fit the Rogers Centre.
Donaldson has fixed his fastball woes of 2017 and replaced them with the slider in 2018. We will see once he returns from the DL if he is back to his normal splits against the slider. If the slider starts to get hit we will see another 35+ home run season and an increase to his .280+ batting Avg. Donaldson is a great addition to any team as he is a .290 career hitting in the 2 hole and a .311 hitter in high leverage situations. He isn’t a gold glove 2013-2015 defender but he is still a plus graded defender at 3B. Donaldson can produce a haul of 2-3 top prospects from any organization.
Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball.” FanGraphs, www.bing.com/cr?IG=EDAD9472B43E4E4FB0F8BBFCD9EDA5CF&CID=2A4FF40CCDC76F6B0F9CFFD8CC686E04&rd=1&h=RN9qNmEuXrEXT1425sHsXUq4oCJ0CxniINZvxN0c5Qc&v=1&r=https://www.fangraphs.com/&p=DevEx,5068.1.