Toronto Blue Jays Part I: Rogers Centre Pitching
The Toronto Blue Jays are off to an 8-5 start to the 2018 season. They have been known for home runs with the likes of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson. The Rogers Centre was just outside the top 10 for home runs allowed to both RHH and LHH. The Rogers Centre yielded the least amount of RHH singles and the 6th least singles to LHH. Blue Jay pitchers that have a high GB% will see less GB find their way as singles than pitchers at other ballparks.
With this in mind the best pitchers for the rigors of the Rogers Centre would be ones with high ground ball percentages (GB%). Ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls and yield a higher batting average. Fly balls on the other hand produce more damage and result in more XBHs. When we look at pitchers with higher ground balls rates we typically see higher BABIP (Batting Avg on Balls In Play) just because there are more opportunities for balls to get through the infield.
The most effective ground ball pitchers have a rate around 55% so they can keep a lower BABIP. Ground balls also produce .05 runs per out. Therefore, if I throw 55% ground ball outs I get 14-15 ground ball outs a game. That’s not even a full run per 9 innings. Add that onto Marcus Stroman’s 7ks per game and 5-6 fly ball outs you’re looking at a dominant start at the Rogers Centre. The data shows that ground ball pitchers will have a lower BABIP than at most other parks. This means starting pitchers will see less ground balls find their way as hits.
Now lets take a look at some of the Blue Jays starting pitchers and why they fit the mold for Rogers Centre. Blue Jay pitchers need to be ground ball conscious because they play in two dangerous home run parks with Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards. They are #1 and #2 respectively in regards to home runs given up to lefties. They are both in the top 10 for home runs given up to righties as well.
Marcus Stroman
From 2015-2017 Stroman has produced a GB% in the 60’s, which is 16% higher than the MLB average. The high GB% is the product of his 93 mph sinker. By looking at his split stats you can also see that his ERA is a full point lower and the batting Avg against is a full .037 lower at home. His career home ERA is 3.24 and he has also produced a 3.22 FIP and 3.30 xFIP. This tells us that when you take out defense and luck he has similar numbers. Stroman embodies the pitcher that can dominate at Rogers Centre. One reason for his great ERA improvement last season was the use of the Slider more often. While it didn’t produce as many ground balls it produced 42% of his strikeouts and .192 Avg against.
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez is back and looks to produce at his mid to upper 50’s GB%. During his stellar 2016 season Righties hit .215 off Sanchez while producing a 60% ground balls. He was able to capitalize on his home parks greatest asset. Overall, he did pitch better on the road as he produced a crazy amount of soft contact at 23.2% and more overall ground balls. Sanchez is another pitcher that relies on his 95.7 mph Sinker. His next best pitch was his Curveball that hasn’t been the same since 2016 when he produced a 14.6% swinging strike. If he can get that back as a plus pitch we should see the 2016 version of Sanchez. In 2017 Sanchez didn’t throw his CH and in 2018 it has been his 2nd favorite pitch. This is a good sign as it produces a .155 batting Avg against. His CH is off to a great start in 2018 with 8 Ks and a .105 batting Avg.
J.A. Happ
The last two seasons Happ has set career high GB% for his career. The sole reason for this is his increased amount of sinkers thrown. With the Sinker he gets a 60% GB rate. With this added increase in sinkers Happ has seen his swinging strike percentage for his FB go up over 2%. Over the last two seasons Happ has gone 30-15 and posted ERAs and FIPs in the 3’s. In 2016 Happ won 20 of those games and posted an absurd 30.1 FB grade, which was 24.4 points higher than his career avg. In 2017 he was closer to his Avg so we can expect more of the same for this season and an ERA in the mid to upper 3’s. In 2016 he benefited from a .268 BABIP, which was .03-.04 under his career avg. Overall you can expect 10+ wins and a good ERA with Happ getting a lot of starts in the Rogers Centre.
Jaime Garcia
Garcia is a pitcher that uses the same pitches as Stroman. He throws his a Sinker as his main pitch and uses his Slider as his best off speed. His SL has produced a career .188 Avg against. In Garcia’s best seasons in the majors he was able to use his SL to get more GBs than his career avg. So far this season he has produced his GB% off the SL. This is because he isn’t getting as many swing and misses as he usually does off the SL but it’s still getting outs at a high clip. In 2018 his Sinker is producing a 57.1% FB rate, which is the opposite from where he would want it. He does have his usual CH and his SL has been effective just in its usual ways. Once he gets his Sinker rolling you should see his GB% climb and keep pitching at an ERA in the 3’s. However, he will give up some homer runs if he keeps getting FBs with his sinker.
Marco Estrada
In 2015 Estrada posted his best season in the majors. He had 13 wins and an ERA at 3.13. That season he pitched beyond his career averages and produced a BABIP of .213. His career Avg was at a .260 clip so his ERA was going to rise a little to begin with, but Estrada is a better pitcher than a 5 ERA. Estrada doesn’t fit the Blue Jays mold for pitching, as he is a fly ball pitcher sitting at 50%. What Estrada does exceptionally well is producing soft contact. He also pitches well below his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. However, as he gets older he may be closing in on those numbers, which would mean his ERA will sit anywhere in the 4’s. Estrada had a great CH in 2015 and 2016 that graded at 13.1 and 12.4 respectively. In 2017 that pitch graded at
-7.2. In 2017 Estrada allowed a .245 Avg against his CH, which was .042 above his career Avg. He allowed more contact, .280 BABIP, on the CH as more balls found holes. For Estrada to be effective he needs his CH to be his best pitch and produce a majority of his Ks and soft fly balls. The key may be in throwing it a mile or two harder than he is.
Projections
Stroman – We have seen a velocity decrease so far in 2018 with his sinker. We have also seen his slider get hit more than usual. However, I expect another 200 IP season and an ERA in the mid to upper 3’s. We won’t see him reach his career high in wins or top more than 12.
Sanchez – He has gotten off to a great start with all his pitches other than his FB, which is down 2mph. As this increases Sanchez will get closer to his 2016 form. He will have an ERA around 3.5 and produce 10 wins this season. He will also set a career high in strikeouts even though he won’t reach his career high in innings pitched.
Happ – He will set a career high in strikeouts posting about 165+ and win 12 games this season. He will also post an ERA closer to his 2016 season of 3.13. To do this he will have to approach righties better than he has to start this season.
Garcia – He will set a career high in wins this season as he gets half his starts in a friendly park for Garcia. He will be a 5-6 innings type of guy, as you need to get him out of the game the 3rd time around in an order. He will post an era at 3.50, which will be his best since 2015.
Estrada – He will be out of the rotation as I see similar issues this year as 2017. His CH is better but righties are still hitting him hard and he is struggling after the first time around the order. An ERA around 4.60 will not cut it, as they will look for a replacement. Best move may be to the bullpen as a long relief type pitcher.
Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball.” FanGraphs, www.bing.com/cr?IG=EDAD9472B43E4E4FB0F8BBFCD9EDA5CF&CID=2A4FF40CCDC76F6B0F9CFFD8CC686E04&rd=1&h=RN9qNmEuXrEXT1425sHsXUq4oCJ0CxniINZvxN0c5Qc&v=1&r=https://www.fangraphs.com/&p=DevEx,5068.1.